Monday, November 01, 2004
ELECTION DAY PREDICTIONS
Coming Soon . . . Morning in America
But For Real This Time
It's time I stepped up to the plate with Election Day predictions, joining so many fellow bloggers and pundits who already have published their expectations.
As you can see, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic as the campaign winds down to the final hours. The tide is beyond having turned in favor of Kerry-Edwards, it's growing at the time when it counts most. It soon will be morning in America. But for real this time.
First, a few premises underlying the predictions: I suspect Democrats, minorities, newly registered voters, and young voters have been undercounted in the polls; turn-out will be far heavier than any time in the last two decades; the president's standing is too low for an incumbent to win, causing the so-called undecided voters to swing to the Democrats; Osama bin Laden's effect on the election is nil; domestic issues, including employment, wages, and health care, are more important to voters than pundits think and polls reveal; and the passion of anti-Bush voters is a truly transformative phenomenon.
And the predictions:
Blue: Kerry-Edwards
Red: Bush-Cheney
(Note: Map not drawn to scale.)
POPULAR VOTE
Kerry-Edwards: 52 percent
Bush-Cheney: 48 percent
ELECTORAL VOTE
Kerry-Edwards: 304 votes
Bush-Cheney: 234 votes
STATE DISTRIBUTION
Kerry-Edwards (22 states and D.C.): California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Bush-Cheney (28 states): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
U.S. SENATE
Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Please vote tomorrow.
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JAMES MARTIN CAPOZZOLA
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James Martin (Jim) Capozzola launched The Rittenhouse Review in April 2002, TRR: The Lighter Side of Rittenhouse, HorowitzWatch, and Smarter Andrew Sullivan in July 2002, and Bulldogs for Kerry-Edwards in October 2004. He is also a contributing member of President Boxer.
He received the 2002 Koufax Award for Best Post> for "Al Gore and the Alpha Girls" (published November 25, 2002). Capozzola's record in the Koufax Awards includes two additional nominations for 2002 (Best Blog and Best Writing), three nominations for 2003 (Best Blog, Best Series, and Best Writing), and two finalist nominations in 2004 (Best Blog and Best Writing).
Capozzola’s experience beyond the blogosphere includes a lengthy career in financial journalism, securities analysis, and investment research, and in freelance writing, editing, ghost-writing, and writing instruction.
He earned his bachelor's degree in political science from the University at Albany and a master's in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia.
Capozzola lives in Philadelphia with his bulldog, Mildred.
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